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01/29/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Algorithms, ridden by Javier Castellano, overtook a tiring Hansen down the stretch to capture Sunday's $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The 5-2 second choice covered the mile in 1:36.17 over a sloppy track.
Hansen, the 2011 champion two-year-old colt, stumbled at the start under jockey Ramon Dominguez but was rushed up to quickly take the lead. Algorithms was dueling with 12-1 longshot Silver Max for second followed by Fort Loudon, 3-1 third pick Consortium and My Adonis.
Hansen had the lead into the far turn with Silver Max second and Algorithms three wide in third. Entering the stretch the 9-10 favorite began to weaken as Algorithms cut into the lead.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Algorithms easily went past Hansen and registered a five-length win over the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ. My Adonis, a 22-1 longshot, rallied to finish third followed by Fort Loudon, Silver Max and Consortium.
Owned by Starlight Stable, Algorithms used the Holy Bull as both his season and stakes debut. The victory was worth $240,000 to bring the three-year-old colt's earnings to $301,500. It was his third win in as many starts.
"This race was going to tell us where we were with him, running against the two-year-old champion," said Pletcher. "Now he's done everything we've asked him to.
"He's by Bernardini and I don't think he'll have distance limitations. So we just have to sort things out from here."
Algorithms first raced last June at Belmont Park and posted a five-length win as the 7-10 favorite. His only other start was last month at Gulfstream when he registered a length victory over Holy Bull rival Consortium.
"I don't think two turns will be a problem for him," noted the winning jockey. "I rode his father Bernardini to win the Preakness and other big races and hopefully this horse can be like that. He's certainly in the right hands with Todd Pletcher."
Algorithms returned $7.00, $2.80 and $2.40. Hansen paid $2.40 and $2.10, and My Adonis paid $4.00 to show.
The favorite's trainer and rider were not completely displeased with the effort by the three-year-old.
"Ramon said pretty much after he stumbled he popped up and jumped right into the bit and was a little headstrong and fresh, but other than that it was a good effort and he galloped out strong," said Hansen's trainer Michael Maker. "We're pleased."
"He has a lot of speed and he might have been a little bit fresh today too which is why we went a little faster than I was looking for," Dominguez said. "He stumbled coming out of the gate and he picked himself up pretty quickly, but sometimes that scares a horse a little bit and they go a little fast. The stumble probably didn't help but it's not an excuse. I'm not happy that he didn't win but I'm not totally disappointed. When he got passed, he really dug in and he galloped out really well."
<< Ajaccio leaves it late to escape relegation zone
Valenciennes, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Christian Kinkela scored 3 minutes
into stoppage time as 10-man Ajaccio edged Valenciennes, 2-1, on Sunday at the
Stade du Hainaut to climb out of the relegation zone in France's Ligue 1.
Ajaccio w
<< No. 6 Kentucky downs Alabama
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Keyla Snowden had 14 points to lift No. 6
Kentucky to an 82-68 win over Alabama in an SEC battle.
A'dia Mathies scored 13 points and Bria Goss added 11 for the Wildcats
(20-2, 9-0), who have won n
<< Inter's winning run halted by Lecce
Lecce, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan saw its seven-match winning streak
in Serie A come to an end on Sunday at Lecce as Guillermo Giacomazzi's 40th-
minute goal was enough to give the hosts a 1-0 win.
The goal arrived from a Mas
<< Banham leads Minnesota to upset of No. 9 Ohio State
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rachel Banham had 20 points as Minnesota
took down No. 9 Ohio State, 76-65, in Big Ten action.
Kiara Buford donated 15 points and seven assists for the Golden Gophers
(12-11, 4-5 Big Ten), who sna
Gaborik's hat trick gives Team Chara the win at NHL All Star Game >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marian Gaborik notched a hat trick and an assist
as Team Chara exploded in the third period to take a 12-9 victory in the 2012
All Star Game from Scotiabank Place.
Jarome Iginla, Marian Hossa and Phil Kessel al
Heat hold off Bulls >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - LeBron James ended with 35 points and 11
rebounds, and the Miami Heat held off the Chicago Bulls, 97-93, in a rematch
of last season's Eastern Conference Finals.
Miami was up by eight with 2 1/2 minute
Allmendinger, Michael Shank Racing win Rolex 24 at Daytona >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Shank Racing pulled off a
stunning win in Sunday's Rolex 24 at Daytona, with NASCAR driver A.J.
Allmendinger behind the wheel of the team's No.60 Ford-Riley during the final
stint.
Tennessee uses big second half to beat Georgia >>
Athens, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shekinna Stricklen had 24 points, seven rebounds
and two steals, as the seventh-ranked Tennessee Lady Vols used a big second
half to beat the 17th-ranked Georgia Lady Bulldogs, 67-50.
Ariel Massengale added
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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