ACC heavyweights square off in Chapel Hill

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Chapel Hill, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports adds another chapter to its storied history this evening, as the 10th- ranked Duke Blue Devils and fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels square off in ACC action at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils are once again among the ACC's elite, but have little room for error the rest of the way as they are coming off a heart- wrenching 78-74 overtime loss to Miami-Florida at home this past weekend. The loss halted a three-game win streak for Duke and dropped it into third place in the ACC, trailing both North Carolina and Florida State by a game in the standings.

Roy Williams' Tar Heels have had to face their own adversity of late, losing a key starter to injury when Dexter Strickland went down with a torn ACL. Depth has been the key for UNC however, as the team has strung together five straight victories to move to 7-1 in-conference. Most recently, North Carolina dropped Maryland in College Park, 83-74.

North Carolina is one of the few teams with a winning record against Duke. The Tar Heels are up 131-101 in a series that dates back to 1920. The Blue Devils have won four of the last five meetings however, including a 75-58 decision in last year's ACC Championship Game. The two schools close out the regular season against one another in Durham on March 3rd.

The Blue Devils fought back from a 16-point second-half deficit to force overtime, but could not sustain it in the extra session, falling at home for the second time in the last three games at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Guards Seth Curry and Austin Rivers led the way in defeat with 22 and 20 points, respectively. Mason Plumlee struggled offensively with just six points, but managed to grab a game-high 13 rebounds.

Duke is at its best when it gets a balanced effort at the offensive end of the floor. The team is averaging almost 80 points per game (79.8), behind a healthy .482 shooting. Four players are averaging double figures coming into this contest, led by Rivers' 14.5 ppg. The standout freshman is followed in the scoring column by Ryan Kelly and Curry at 12.6 ppg each. Mason Plumlee headlines the play down low, averaging a near double-double with 11.6 points and a team-high 9.7 rebounds per game. Plumlee, who is delivering on nearly 60 percent from the floor (.592), ranks second in the ACC in rebounding. Andre Dawkins (9.7 ppg) is inching closer to double digits, as he is the team's top threat from long range, hitting 51-of-125 from behind the arc.

There aren't many teams that can match Duke's offensive proficiency, but North Carolina is one of them. The Tar Heels lead the nation in scoring at 84.1 ppg, and possess three of the ACC's top nine scorers and two of the top three rebounders. UNC boasts of the nation's premier frontcourt, as Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller are a dominating trio. Barnes can score from anywhere on the floor and ranks third in the league at 17.3 ppg. Zeller (15.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and Henson (14.3 ppg, ACC-leading 10.0 rpg) are a devastating duo around the rim. Kendall Marshall isn't much of a scorer (6.5 ppg), but is as good as any point guard in the nation in getting his teammates involved, ranking second nationally with 9.8 apg.

Zeller led the way in the recent win over Maryland with 22 points. Barnes poured in 18, while Henson recorded a double-double with 17 points and 12 rebounds. Reggie Bullock added 11 points to round out the double-digit scorers. Marshall just missed a double-double, finishing with nine points, while dishing out an impressive 16 assists.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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